This document was first posted on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values in each Scenario would be updated and augmented over time as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. These values-called parameter values-can be used in models to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. The Planning Scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19 Surge Tool.Įach Planning Scenario is based on a set of numerical values for the biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 illness, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Models developed using the data provided in the Planning Scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response ( ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to advance public health preparedness and planning and help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government.
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